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govinda

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A bit one-sided, I think. Higher qualification means higher pay even in those countries and in the long run it has quite an influence on the economic and social structure. Better-paid people are able to spend more money in their own countries which in turn helps local economy and allows other people to make a better living. You see, production cost in China has risen by 2000% and more already for some products, and while it may merely represent a jump from 1 Cent to 3 Cents, it says something about the whole matter. Give it a few years and some iterations of 2000%, it may no longer be as cheap to produce stuff there as it was 10 years ago. Agreed, it's still peanuts to us, but eventually it will be a measurable factor and then, as funy as it is, big companies will start thinking...

 

Mylenium

 

Let's extrapolate a bit what you just said...

In this very moment China has most of the production factories of the world, 90% of the IT components are produced in China. When they will have almost the same wages as ours, or at least a comparable lifestyle - (if I am following your theory of 2000% risen) - they could say screw you guys - we are a monopoly of production on Terra - we sell only at that price from now one. A bigger problem for the western jobless populations yes ! Not a problem for the corporations that just move their HQs from west to far east.

Edited by Philipstudios

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Let's extrapolate a bit what you just said...

In this very moment China has most of the production factories of the world, 90% of the IT components are produced in China. When they will have almost the same wages as ours, or at least a comparable lifestyle - (if I am following your theory of 2000% risen) - they could say screw you guys - we are a monopoly of production on Terra - we sell only at that price from now one. A bigger problem for the western jobless populations yes ! Not a problem for the corporations that just move their HQs from west to far east.

 

Ah na. Haven't you read my previous replies in this thread? As a matter of fact many companies are moving out of those "cheap work" countries 'cos they already burnt their fingers and I don't see why this couldn't happen again in other industries. You are also giving no credit to the fact that in particular China is a mere "manufacturer" in many areas in the worst sense of the meaning - they assemble/ produce those things, but they do not necessarily fully understand how they work or how they are engineered. There's a crucial difference between the two. They may have a lot of manpower to catch up, but they're not there yet and they won't be for quite a while... Anyway, pointless to speculate. You could be right, I could be right, others could be right. Until the day really arrives, we won't know how it turns out - Asia in its current state is too unpredictable. The next big local war or rise of a new dictatorship could throw any current predictions off track....

 

Mylenium

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Guest Sao_Bento
Ah na. Haven't you read my previous replies in this thread? As a matter of fact many companies are moving out of those "cheap work" countries 'cos they already burnt their fingers and I don't see why this couldn't happen again in other industries. You are also giving no credit to the fact that in particular China is a mere "manufacturer" in many areas in the worst sense of the meaning - they assemble/ produce those things, but they do not necessarily fully understand how they work or how they are engineered. There's a crucial difference between the two. They may have a lot of manpower to catch up, but they're not there yet and they won't be for quite a while... Anyway, pointless to speculate. You could be right, I could be right, others could be right. Until the day really arrives, we won't know how it turns out - Asia in its current state is too unpredictable. The next big local war or rise of a new dictatorship could throw any current predictions off track....

 

Mylenium

Having spent the last year working with Chinese manufacturing companies, and a web development firm who we later found out outsources most of their work to India, I agree whole-heartedly with what Mylenium has said here.

 

If your goal is to produce ridiculous amounts of low quality cheap shit with giant profit margins, it makes sense to manufacture abroad. If you're trying to do anything involving detail or high quality the perceived advantages of working abroad quickly fade away for most companies. The money you save on production is the money you lose on time to market and trying to enforce any kind of standards of quality. It only makes sense for the largest of corporations.

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Yeah, I think on the whole, it's not possible to sustain a one-size-fits-all opinion on what's going on with China and India. It's a many-headed thing. On the overall, I'm 60-40 on the whole thing, with most of the bad things being environmental (25% of LA smog comes from China, amazingly enough--the particular type of coal they burn is that dirty). There are all kinds of great and terrible things that come from massive social upheaval when a country goes industrial, too many to list here (people get more religious, people get better secular education, people starve, people thrive, incomes diverge, middle class rises up, spillover effects on neighbors, nationalism becomes dangerous to neighbors, corruption, better laws against corruption, I mean it's seriously contradictory and clearly too much to disaggregate for a designer!).

 

Judging whether all this is a good thing or a bad thing on a societal scale requires a more structured way of thinking, something that we can barely scratch here. Which classes benefit. Which kinds of products are we talking about. Where is it happening and not happening. We're all using too broad a brush and missing most of the best spots, myself included. That's why I was being specific to one small part of one industry in one kind of relationship (VFX and branches of existing US companies doing work on US films). It got broadened, but then it will.

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Factoid: My girlfriend works at the Strand Bookstore and says that once a month an Indian fellow comes in and buys all of the technical text books in the basement and sends them back to India. He gets them at a discount but he drops about 5k for the stash.

 

-m

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Comparing low-cost mass-market consumer products, with services like design, advertising and VFX, is ridiculous. I wouldn't worry too much about

your job be outsourced, unless you are doing roto work for disney (and even then i wouldn't worry, with such a low fekking dollar..)

as a matter of fact, China and India might as well outsource to the US (just kidding)

 

That fact of the matter is, if you do anything that isn't low-cost one-size-fits-all fare, you will be fine. I would start worrying if China and India get up to US/EU level, and cultural barriers as well as language barriers, start to disappear.

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