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silatix

economy in crisis..

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Guest Sao_Bento
It's game over already. I'm about to change my Sig line.

Maybe that's exactly what they want you to think. We haven't even seen the real swiftboating yet.

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somewhat off the topic, but an elephant in the room is population is reaching the earths carrying capacity, al gore mentions it briefly in his book, the PNAC nazis mention it, it seems pretty real but its the one thing no one is pushing. we all believe in the social contract, but i dont think the majority of leaders of the world aren't there for us to keep on keepin on for *our* own good

 

govinda, you're the man, but i disagree that exponential growth is possible and sustainable, if i heard you right. obesity kills, metaphorically

 

i think we mographers and game studio peeps will have a diff world vew, because of all our computer time, down time to read, and workplaces that reinforce our individualty, as opposed to many in thr population that get their insights from tv, best sellers, and conversation

 

even then, i still feel like tons of important shit is happening that we will not know about for a long time, in which time it will be history

 

i couldn't find the article before which is why i'm replying to this so late

 

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09...on_plan_fi.html

 

i know this an extreme example but what exactly are you suggesting in terms of population control? a lot of complaints about overpopulation are directed at "those stupid poor people who are irresponsible and don't use birth control as they should" etc... which is a troubling point of view.

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Lets hear your reasoning :)

 

http://electoral-vote.com/ <---- They're a bit eager to award states, but it could be that much of a wipeout.

 

Lessee, what else...

McCain gave up on Michigan yesterday, which is huge. They needed Michigan, failing that they need Minnesota.

Ohio started voting three days ago, just as the economic situation got to its most dire.

Never underestimate
.

A year ago October 1, it was essentially over, with
.

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Oh and...as for Swiftboating, it's hard to bring up Reverend Wright and Bill Ayers anymore, because Hillary did us all the service of wearing out those subjects back in March.

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what the hell, stock market?

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/p...8_n_131527.html

 

i hope it's still to early for 'told you so's'

 

After the past few weeks I will officially admit that I don't know shit about the stock market. Everyone acts like they do the next day after something like this, then it behaves in the exact opposite way under similar circumstances and they come up with a new theory. When I was a wee lad my father explained it to me by saying it's like a big herd of turkeys, where if one gets spooked they all go running in the same direction. Give that guy the nobel prize in economics.

 

I wouldn't get too excited about the electoral stuff. McCain was leading a couple weeks ago, threatening in Michigan, etc, and the Obama camp looked like they didn't know WTF to do. Things are certainly leaning Obama all things being equal, but I bet we see the electoral map shift a few more times before this ball game is over. I wouldn't be surprised at all if something happens in the next month that makes everything up to this point irrelevant.

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The stock market had already priced in the bailout's passage. Now it's reacting to the sad fact that, bailout or no bailout, rough waters ahead.

 

This ain't turkeys, but it's another way to maybe explain things...

In finance, the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient", or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information. The efficient-market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future.

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agreed, its way troubling

 

me, i just want a peaceful world to live in. i am just saying overpopulation is a creepy idea to see tossed around by the PNACs and Kissingers of the world.

 

Things are certainly leaning Obama all things being equal, but I bet we see the electoral map shift a few more times before this ball game is over. I wouldn't be surprised at all if something happens in the next month that makes everything up to this point irrelevan

 

neither would i, but in the VP debate the whole agreement made between palin and biden to not lay any blame moving forward was bullshit, the only way to not let these 8 years happen again is through the cleansing process of accountability, otherwise moving forward, we are legitimizing a sham of a war, and insane expansions of executive power

 

watching these last 8 years go by has had a noticeable tax on my quality of life, let alone your average iraqi

Edited by jablinko

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PASSED.

 

Expect the dollar to plunge into the infinite.

 

Once China and some other countries stop lending money to USA it's over buddies.

 

We might see rioting in streets and chaos soon with martial law declared by Bush & friends.

 

It's pretty sad what my country has come to and what these crooks have done to it.

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Expect the dollar to plunge into the infinite.

 

Once China and some other countries stop lending money to USA it's over buddies.

 

We might see rioting in streets and chaos soon with martial law declared by Bush & friends.

 

It's pretty sad what my country has come to and what these crooks have done to it.

yup

 

i wonder what will come of the dollar, because while war and money injections suggest inflation, if credit is less available, couldn't that be deflationary?

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Okay then, explain why China would stop lending money to us.

 

Let's take it from the top:

Chinese companies sell us goods.

They earn dollars.

They bring the dollars back to China.

They exchange for Renminbi--except oops! They can't. The Chinese government won't let them exchange ALL their dollars. They fear the huge demand for their currency will make it too strong vs. the dollar, making their products too expensive for other nations to keep buying on the cheap at WalMart or the French equivalent.

So Chinese companies tuck away most of their dollars. They keep much of it in the form of Treasury Bills, the single-most stable form of currency on the planet, was yesterday, will be tomorrow, risk-free interest.

Chinese goverment also gets dollars from these companies in the form of taxes, duties and fees. Huge fucking bags of dollars.

Chinese government keeps these huge fucking bags of dollars rather than convert to Renminbi. They use T-bills also.

Chinese government doesn't spend their huge fucking bags of dollars on their infrastructure for fear of inciting inflation (and here we're going back a few posts to where that was explained).

Nervous equilibrium holds, as it has for something like 15 years. Mutually assured destruction if we should ever stop allowing China to hold our dollars or if China should decide to sell our dollars.

 

Upshot: China's not going to stop lending us money. Maybe they'll demand higher interest rates for the same amount of money.

 

But I'm sure this is something you could have recited from memory also, ZeBrownie. I can't imagine you'd post something based on, you know, zero attempt to research the fundamentals or anything. ;)

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Okay then, explain why China would stop lending money to us.

 

Let's take it from the top:

Chinese companies sell us goods.

They earn dollars.

They bring the dollars back to China.

They exchange for Renminbi--except oops! They can't. The Chinese government won't let them exchange ALL their dollars. They fear the huge demand for their currency will make it too strong vs. the dollar, making their products too expensive for other nations to keep buying on the cheap at WalMart or the French equivalent.

So Chinese companies tuck away most of their dollars. They keep much of it in the form of Treasury Bills, the single-most stable form of currency on the planet, was yesterday, will be tomorrow, risk-free interest.

Chinese goverment also gets dollars from these companies in the form of taxes, duties and fees. Huge fucking bags of dollars.

Chinese government keeps these huge fucking bags of dollars rather than convert to Renminbi. They use T-bills also.

Chinese government doesn't spend their huge fucking bags of dollars on their infrastructure for fear of inciting inflation (and here we're going back a few posts to where that was explained).

Nervous equilibrium holds, as it has for something like 15 years. Mutually assured destruction if we should ever stop allowing China to hold our dollars or if China should decide to sell our dollars.

 

Upshot: China's not going to stop lending us money. Maybe they'll demand higher interest rates for the same amount of money.

 

But I'm sure this is something you could have recited from memory also, ZeBrownie. I can't imagine you'd post something based on, you know, zero attempt to research the fundamentals or anything. ;)

 

True for now.

 

But at some point China might not be so dependent on the U.S. to export it's cheap goods and it's cheap labour. Especially when the Americans won't be strong consumers any longer now that our economy is f'-ed. The economic power might shift from the west to the east (China, Russia, India etc) and then the U.S. and maybe Europe might become more like second world territories exporting cheap labour and thus the situation is flipped while asian countries become wealthier, consume more and use up all the oil. And if the U.S. does another controversial imperialistic military action China could use it's new power to threaten with an economic war and dump the dollar reserves. Oh and aren't some of the OPEC countries slowly exchanging the dollar for the euro?

 

I didn't say this would happen tomorrow though. But it seems not too far away.

 

Either way i'm curious how we're ever gonna pay this back http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

Edited by ZeBrownie

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there is just no way in hell chinese banks are gonna stop lending us money. ps. they aren't the only ones with a significant amount of treasury notes.

 

nationaldebt04.png

 

Maybe i wasn't clear enough, but this isn't an opinion, this is a rumour wich might be based more in fact then you would want it to be. (read: the chinese are denying it now)

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUST...lBrandChannel=0

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That's Chinese banks. The better view is just to look at China's current account surplus (exports minus imports). They keep much of it in dollars, a lot of it in other currencies, so essentially they're propping up more countries than just us. In econ terms, China and other countries with current account surpluses are funding countries with current account deficits, of which the US is the biggest. Which currencies is China holding? That's considered a state secret, so China won't say. ZeBrownie is right to think that our consumption will mean less 'lending' to us by China, and there's another possibility--that China switches its reserves to another currency (i.e., the euro). They rebalance their weighting all the time of course, but it'd be a big realignment to hold more euros, yen or pounds than dollars.

 

(That thing I wrote about how China gets its dollars is basically the idea of 'Current Account Surplus' written out longhand.)

 

Anyway, the verdict on the bailout isn't in. Next week is a very big week. The market didn't react at all as hoped last week. I'm reading now that it might've been wrong for me to think that the market had already priced in the bailout and moved on to other concerns--maybe it was turning a thumbs-down to the bailout itself. Maybe it was pricing in the possibility that the bailout isn't going to do that job and that another bailout might be necessary before the year is out. Yes, I said another bailout. That's just a glimmer of a suspicion by Krugman yesterday. Before anyone reads too much conspiracy into the fact that Wall Street might come with hat in hand yet again, look up the term 'arbitrage.' It's basically a self-reinforcing, self-correcting behavior that does a lot of things, one of which is prevent conspiracies.

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Hmm hmm hmm, checking on that Acorn accusation above...knowing the source, I have reason to suspect it's just plain false...and bingo! Acorn receives exactly zero federal funding. The supposed 'Acorn Slush Fund' in the bailout bill was, wait for it, completely mischaracterized by a certain right-wing screamer.

"In the end, how much of the bailout's potential profits are earmarked for ACORN? "None. Absolutely none. All funds would go to state and local governments," said Steven Adamske, spokesman for Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), the chairman of the Financial Services Committee and a lead negotiator."

What right-wing screamer made the accusations Clint repeats here? Why our old friend, the pro-Muslim-internment cheerleader Michelle Malkin. This Michelle Malkin:

 

20081005-bx8qb7ta19iif56477idssq3rd.jpg20081005-gupmyanis5w16ne1d2e9mr41x1.jpg

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