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silatix

economy in crisis..

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Yeah what a shit sandwich that turned out to be. Everyone was in such a hurry to pass this bill, but instead it became an all you can eat pork platter with a side of economic bailout.

 

I could honestly care less about this presidential election. I mean, I get into the political tactics and stuff, and find that interesting, but I see the president as little more than the mouthpiece of America. If there's a good cause to take up right now, it would be to flush out the incumbents in congress. Congress is like the little man behind the curtain, except this man has downs syndrome, and a shitload of money.

 

I was looking into their latest congressional actions and found out they've been diligently working on a resolution "recognizing the 150th anniversary year of the founding of Macy's, Inc." WTF? Who needs this?

 

Anyway, fuck them, I want a congressman that will stand up in the middle of this Macy's bullshit and start punching motherfuckers until they start working on something worth working on.

 

Amen, Beaver. I wouldn't say I don't care about this election, but I do think the problem in congress goes largely ignored. My point many posts ago was about each and every member of congress being scared shitless about betting tossed, and not protected by people's blind party affiliations. The spin on this crisis makes me want to pull my hair out. Again, if one party succeeds in laying full blame for this mess on the other party, it will guarantee nothing really gets fixed.

 

And we definitely need more punching of motherfuckers going on.

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today as I read the headlines of the dow plunging another 800 I think I hit the first signs of "crisis fatigue". My nerve endings are burned out.

 

I used to get excited about 250 point drops, soon three and four hundred point drops weren't doing it for me anymore. Reading 800 today was exciting, but I know that will wear off too and soon I'm going to need a 1000+ point drop in order to even click the "read more" link anymore.

 

In the mean time, my phone is ringing off the hook. I've turned down three projects this week and I'm already double+ booked for Oct through mid Nov.

 

What a strange disconnect.

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today as I read the headlines of the dow plunging another 800 I think I hit the first signs of "crisis fatigue". My nerve endings are burned out.

 

I used to get excited about 250 point drops, soon three and four hundred point drops weren't doing it for me anymore. Reading 800 today was exciting, but I know that will wear off too and soon I'm going to need a 1000+ point drop in order to even click the "read more" link anymore.

 

In the mean time, my phone is ringing off the hook. I've turned down three projects this week and I'm already double+ booked for Oct through mid Nov.

 

What a strange disconnect.

 

I'm right there with you; as busy as ever. In fact, most everyone I know in this biz is slammed right now. I'm afraid however that the new year is going to come with new budgets; that's where the fun begins.

 

The thing is, if what we see right now is as bad as it gets, this won't be so bad. But this isn't as bad as it's going to get. Not knowing where the bottom is is the scariest thing of them all.

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I just think about all those tutorials I've been meaning to watch if and when work dries up. The other downside might not be a lack of work but having to pay a shitload more taxes to cover the big mess. Thus making all our hard work pointless.

 

today as I read the headlines of the dow plunging another 800 I think I hit the first signs of "crisis fatigue". My nerve endings are burned out.

 

I used to get excited about 250 point drops, soon three and four hundred point drops weren't doing it for me anymore. Reading 800 today was exciting, but I know that will wear off too and soon I'm going to need a 1000+ point drop in order to even click the "read more" link anymore.

 

In the mean time, my phone is ringing off the hook. I've turned down three projects this week and I'm already double+ booked for Oct through mid Nov.

 

What a strange disconnect.

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Taxes won't change solely because of the bailout. The bailout goes on the national debt. The national debt gets paid over several decades.

 

But back to the main shindig going on. I'm bugging out.

 

Whadda I know? I have a pretty good framework for understanding these things, but each particular situation is different. You may know how to use the Glow filter, you may know how to use Turbulent Displace, you may know how to use the Matte Choker, but have you used them all at the same time in each specific combination? The global economy is kinda like that. Everything is understood in empirical terms--if they've occurred. Otherwise it's only been modeled. And the economy has a much longer effects menu to use to pair effects. It's much more like the global climate than like some mechanistic plumbing model of flows and injections of capital, as you learn in Econ 101. Economic policy people's pull-down menu includes situations such as 'bank crisis in Iceland,' 'tsunami recovery in Indonesia,' 'Katrina recovery costs in America.' Then they all go together like some kind of massively complex global economic Magic Bullet Look Suite combo, and what do you get? How do you work with it?

 

The thing that bugs me: we went into the crisis with a Fed pretty much already having painted itself into a corner. Interest rates were already crazy low. Going much lower means inflation risks, and how would that play? Inflation in prices at the exact time when nobody has any money to pay for anything anyway? Complete screeching halt, nothing anyone has ever seen.

 

The TED Spread could reach 5% next week, maybe even today. That's fucking amazing, and scarier than hell. Who cares about the election? It's been over for three weeks now. What I want is Obama to come in and start working on November 6, because those 2.5 months of lame duckery are a time when a lot of things need doing, and clearly these guys aren't up to it. Where was the contingency plan for this crisis? It's been predicted for nearly three years that this was coming. If there's anything to vote on, it's simple competence, that's the only drum I beat, and right now we're paying hugely for a lack of simple competence. I want to know what Paulson was doing on, say, March 15, 2008. Some dinner engagement? Some meeting with Cheney to ensure ideological direction of the Treasury department?

 

Something has to give soon, that's my hope.

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Let's hope so, cause we're on the brink of a system crisis. Maybe there needs to be a limit on weekly cash withdrawals, cause if there's another run on a big bank, it's end of story.

 

Let's not hope this happens, cause even the IMF is talking about it.

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"Wall Street has ended a wild session with its best showing of the week after investors went in search of bargains among stocks devastated by seven days of massive losses. The Nasdaq composite index finished with a modest gain, while the Dow Jones industrials lost 126 points, a relataively mild drop after the blue chips fell 2,271 during the previous eight trading days."

 

Crazy to think that a 126 point drop is the "best showing of the week." Good grief.

 

Still, it's better than a 800 point drop.

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Lets find the bright side.. Anyone eyeing any stocks? :)

 

I'm just glad that the retirement money I put in this year will be bought when the market is in the shitter to make up for the retirement I put in last year which is now worth shite.

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I'm just glad that the retirement money I put in this year will be bought when the market is in the shitter to make up for the retirement I put in last year which is now worth shite.

 

 

haha. yeah. I just bailed on half of my SEP payment and had my taxes re-worked. As a freelancer, I was caught between investing at (hopefully) the valley floor or actually having cash on hand if things slow up a bit work wise. I went with cash. Investing by mid morning today might have been the smarter call.

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Im opting for cash as well.. my mutual fund got all kinds of messed up

 

haha. yeah. I just bailed on half of my SEP payment and had my taxes re-worked. As a freelancer, I was caught between investing at (hopefully) the valley floor or actually having cash on hand if things slow up a bit work wise. I went with cash. Investing by mid morning today might have been the smarter call.

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Guest Sao_Bento

I was kind of LOL at Jim Cramer telling everyone to get out of the stock market NOW - that's not the kind of thing you see a financial guy with a TV show saying everyday.

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haha. yeah. I just bailed on half of my SEP payment and had my taxes re-worked. As a freelancer, I was caught between investing at (hopefully) the valley floor or actually having cash on hand if things slow up a bit work wise. I went with cash. Investing by mid morning today might have been the smarter call.

 

I kept mine going in but dollar-cost averaged over 3 months to smooth out any crazy spikes.

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One thing not to do now is even look at stocks. Imagine they don't exist. They're not relevant compared to the bigger problem of credit. The bond market has always dwarfed the stock market, but it's never been easy for retail investors (ahem, you and me) to understand, so it's something that CNBC, Cramer and the rest don't have any incentive to explain.

 

Just look at a few thing for now, the TED Spread and the flight to quality as reflected in the yields on T-Bills. This is a credit crisis that has consequences for stocks, not the other way around. Looking too closely at stocks for signs of the future is like trying to coax water out of the end of the hose instead of looking at the spigot.

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What I want is Obama to come in and start working on November 6

 

 

Completely genuine question here (no sarcasm):

What makes you think Obama and his crew will be able to fix this? I don't mean this as a political question, but more as a "do you know something I don't?" type question. I just see the government sort of pissing in the wind right now. Republican, Democrat, Icelandic Goat, whatever.

 

$600 billion, a trillion... what can these numbers do in relation to the global size of all of this now? It seems almost intent on running its course, and nobody has yet earned my confidence for the future. Apathy and or fatalism seem a safer investment.

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Guest Sao_Bento
Completely genuine question here (no sarcasm):

What makes you think Obama and his crew will be able to fix this? I don't mean this as a political question, but more as a "do you know something I don't?" type question. I just see the government sort of pissing in the wind right now. Republican, Democrat, Icelandic Goat, whatever.

 

$600 billion, a trillion... what can these numbers do in relation to the global size of all of this now? It seems almost intent on running its course, and nobody has yet earned my confidence for the future. Apathy and or fatalism seem a safer investment.

They can't. Just like everyone saw this coming and couldn't stop it. The most Obama can do is inject a little confidence and convince the rest of the world that we're not going to be as greed driven as we have been.

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What makes you think Obama and his crew will be able to fix this?

Oops, my point got obscured. What I want is someone to be at the helm every minute of the time between 11/4 and 1/21. Those 2.5 months are very very important. There may need to be a bailout in that period, some decisive moments that call for leadership.

 

The outgoing Paulson clan are already looking for jobs. He's probably losing important guys as we speak, unless they're hugely self-sacrificing and truly do put country first (sorry, I did giggle when I wrote that). People are packing their offices starting early December, if not already. Even if he could keep his team in place, the incentives of a new crowd of people are to do better work than the outgoing people. It could be Icelandic Goats or Obama's people, I don't care, just have people in there who are invested in finding a solution.

 

I'm hearing from my coworker that in the Depression in the 30s, there was pressure for FDR to take the helm early, and FDR declined. Back then the gap was 4 months between election and inauguration. It was because of that situation that, in 1937, inauguration moved to January.

 

Other'n that, I agree with what Sao posted above.

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great help those bailouts were

 

who benefited there?

 

It was announced, but it hasn't happened yet. :) Actually making it happen will take a lot of planning.

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