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govinda

2008 Election Thread

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Might as well formalize what's going on in Joe the Plumber, What the F---, Obama and John McCain You're Not My Friend threads. 'Serious graphic designers' and others who hate political debates, look away! Find some embossed text on a brochure somewhere and run your fingers along it--that'll comfort you until November 5. Meanwhile, other people want to shout at each other.

 

Election is November 4. That's two weeks plus one to the election. Winner needs 270 to win, 370 is considered a landslide (yes that term is being bandied about, though it's unlikely). Let's have a little history. Here's the 2004 Electoral Map:

 

 

20081020-844xe6aerday6wr38smj7tu728.jpg

 

So you take Kerry's states and add these three, and the election is decided (current weighted polling in parens):

 

New Mexico (50-44 for Obama, insurmountable lead)

Iowa (53-42 for Obama, insurmountable lead)

Colorado (50-44 for Obama, healthy lead)

 

This is the map you get, Obama wins:

 

20081020-84rtqqbbpfkuc7fyrn37a245mr.jpg

 

 

This is one probable scenario based on current polls:

 

20081020-cyu4d7igfgsw9uxc4uc693fpqg.jpg

 

Best electoral vote trackers:

http://www.pollster.com/polls

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

 

Others with useful tricks (CNN used above):

http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html

http://electoral-vote.com/

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

 

 

Finally, a bit if high-falutin' statistickal stuff:

20081020-n6i17sh2u68rfnt8fec7p883hr.jpg

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One idea of this thread, if anyone cares to play along, is to futz around with some states on the CNN map (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/) and see what you get. I think I get 318 or so for Obama when I go at it realistically.

 

But then there's the Bradley Effect to think about. I read someone saying that it could count for up to 6% in some states, but based on what? I don't know.

 

Everyone, get out and vote, that includes right-wingers, left-wingers, centrists, Paulistas and Free Soil-ites.

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Bradley schmadley.

 

If you look at Harold Ford last go 'round in Tennessee, there doesn't seem to be any evidence to support the Bradley effect being a signifigant factor. Couple that with a good hard look at Barack's performance in the primaries, and it seems like a non-issue.

 

Sounds like a useful cover story for more GOP fraud, though.

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20081021-xrhitdrwbw862r9q7apyc31d1k.jpg

 

I love Intrade, but wow, I kid you not, the McCain people are even resorting to Intrade fraud. It's like, hey, let's throw away a fortune on assetless futures contracts just to make our candidate look better in a place hardly anyone knows about.

 

Since Intrade may be skewed by all this wingnuttery, there's also Betfair and the Iowa Electronic Markets.

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I just read a piece saying that it's all about Pennsylvania. Colorado has too much early voting. Virginia has too much early voting. New Hampshire is too small.

"
where he is way down: Right now, McCain is more than 8.0% behind in states worth 277 electoral votes (the Kerry and / or Gore states plus Virginia). With only 270 needed to win, and 269 to tie, he has to target a state where he trails by more than 8%. That isn't even an option."

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Indiana of all places goes blue. Good god. Georgia is narrowing. I'm having a heart attack. Meanwhile maybe the most important thing to come from this election would be the demise of Matt Drudge, that hack, as an influence in shaping the news. Drudge was pumping that 'mugging / carving a B in the cheek' story all week. Now it's been outed as a hoax. Here's Drudge trying to repair his image.

 

20081024-juy943pkm1m6j1mbb9bwdge7hm.png

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Guest Sao_Bento
Meanwhile maybe the most important thing to come from this election would be the demise of Matt Drudge, that hack, as an influence in shaping the news. Drudge was pumping that 'mugging / carving a B in the cheek' story all week. Now it's been outed as a hoax. Here's Drudge trying to repair his image.

Serves him right.

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Would they release the results of all this early voting that's going on or is it all counted on Nov. 4th?

 

In some states they release the numbers. How's it going? Feast your eyes on these numbers from ten days ago.

 

20081025-dwqqnc5t7qxjgpx9xipw13x2jg.jpg

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Well, as a spectator sport this is all kinda fun, but look! Us non-American types get to vote too!

Wonder who the 6.7% germans are that voted for McCain :huh:

 

By the way - do they still use those fancy voting machines in Florida? If so, you should worry about them - not the Bradley effect...

Edited by levante

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The Bradley Effect may be debunked. Back then pollsters weren't so good at predicting early / absentee voting, and that was overwhelmingly Republican. That swung the Bradley election more than anything. (It was Bradley vs Deukmejian for California governor.)

 

Now for some oldies but goodies. First a look at Purple America, circa 2004.

20081027-de7f54eap2rnbeewpxwhcy25in.jpg

 

That looks awfully red still, eh? But look at it by population and things are a bit different.

20081027-bugk259kkia2428usxqf6aq1g1.jpg

 

Here's what really counts, the Electoral Map. This is the NYTimes map from today with Obama's 286 EV count (which is lower than my prediction of 333 for Obama).

 

Look how anchored this thing is by California, New York, Illinois.

20081027-ga8s49yyrgem3y3dne3sbegg7b.jpg

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Here's some fun in the form of pure, unadulterated wingnuttery.

 

Joe Biden did an interview in Florida and got ambushed by a right-wing crank masquerading as a journalist. This is edited to show her questions and Biden's responses. This is the Biden everyone likes, as opposed to the windbag nobody likes.

 

20081027-1x2stmwm4ap426qnefj46n1uuy.jpg

 

 

I imagine this interviewer thought she was making up for Katie Couric's interviews with Sarah Palin. I thought Kouric was too prejudicial in her tone of questioning, for the record. The right wing thought the same and worse, decrying liberal media bias. But then they do that a lot, eh?

 

So in typical right-wing fashion, this woman repaid possible, slight bias with overt, massive bias that ventures into hysteria and paranoia. And isn't that the Fox News formula? Look for this woman to be offered a job with Roger Ailes.

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Ah yes, socialist Sweden.

 

HAVE YOU EVER BEEN TO SWEDEN YOU IGNORANT FUCKING CUNT.

WHY THE FUCK DO THESE DOUCHEBAGS KEEP ON GETTING AIRTIME, YOU SHOULD BE ON THE FUCKING STREETS LYNCING THESE A-HOLES.

 

I feel like i'm in a parallel universe. I'm going to have a coronary now, bye bye.

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Dude, nothing is bad enough to force the Joe the Plumber thread on someone!

Continuing News from the Coming Landslide.

It's good to realize just which bad guys be without after November 4. As of now, 3 or 4 of the 10 Worst Congress Members are already out of jobs (Pombo, Weldon and soon Wm Jefferson). This election rids us all of the woman I consider highly under-rated among the worst. She's down by an insurmountable 9 points in her race. Couldn't happen to a nicer woman. Ladies and gentleman, the fundie delight, Marilyn Musgrave.

 

Fess up, I bet you never knew such an idiot was actually in Congress. :D

 

20081028-8iy1bqg7rdbtwtmw2f29m2hrii.jpg

 

From the article: "'She doesn't like the idea of one gay person," says Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts. "So obviously the idea of two of us hanging out makes her very unhappy.'"

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