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"In 2049, a $1000 dollar computer will out-compute the brains of the entire human population"

 

A ) One thousand dollars would buy a loaf of bread in 40 years time

B ) There will be more people than bare inches of earth by then OR there will be an unknown population of tribes immune to the nuclear fallout/zombie virus/bird flu

 

Some dodgy stats in here, but a good watch nonetheless.

Edited by iline

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Some interesting stuff. Some dodgy stuff.

 

"In 2049, a $1000 dollar computer will out-compute the brains of the entire human population"

 

That means nothing until software developes. The DNA software of one human brain is massively more powerful than all the software in the world combined. When software become sentient or even shows the slightest spark of sentience I'll be impressed.

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Some interesting stuff. Some dodgy stuff.

 

"In 2049, a $1000 dollar computer will out-compute the brains of the entire human population"

 

That means nothing until software developes. The DNA software of one human brain is massively more powerful than all the software in the world combined. When software become sentient or even shows the slightest spark of sentience I'll be impressed.

 

That's not dodgy, it's a bit misleading, but not dodgy. First I think the figure has been adjusted for inflation. Second, it's comparing it to today's world population. According to Moore's law it will happen this century, and it will out-perform today's human ability in many ways. Just like a $1000 computer out-performs the human brain in certain tasks today, it calculates 1732 much faster than you can for example. That may not mean much, but I bet you're happy that inefficient software does all the computations in a particle system.

 

Moore's law does have its limitations, but for now it is a widely accepted premise and one that is believed to be sustainable until at least 2029. I suspect we will see some significant advances in molecular level computing, such as DNA computing, or even quantum computing by then.

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That's not dodgy, it's a bit misleading, but not dodgy. First I think the figure has been adjusted for inflation. Second, it's comparing it to today's world population. According to Moore's law it will happen this century, and it will out-perform today's human ability in many ways. Just like a $1000 computer out-performs the human brain in certain tasks today, it calculates 1732 much faster than you can for example. That may not mean much, but I bet you're happy that inefficient software does all the computations in a particle system.

 

Moore's law does have its limitations, but for now it is a widely accepted premise and one that is believed to be sustainable until at least 2029. I suspect we will see some significant advances in molecular level computing, such as DNA computing, or even quantum computing by then.

 

I think you're missing my point. Being able to compute the all the prime numbers between 1 and 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000 in 1 second isn't that great. I worked professionally for 3 years as a computer programmer. Todays computers are nothing more than very fast electronic machines. They are no more "intelligent" than a can opener. Multiply the computing power of todays computers by 100000 trillion. You've now got an even faster dumb machine.

 

I've got no doubt computers will one day be close to us. 2049? Not a chance.

Edited by destro

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Out-computing doesn't mean out-smarting, it just means they can do more calculations in any given time than humans can, that's it. Kasparov vs that big dumb computer comes to mind. The fact is that, can openers or not, our society has become highly dependent on computers, and if slow dumb machines can impact our lives they way they do now, just imagine how they will impact it when they become even faster dumb machines. I'm not debating the intelligence factor, nor do I think the video aluded to that, I'm debating that the computational power quote is indeed a significant statement.

 

A lot of research is being conducted on computing and programing on a molecular level. One dimensional nano devices are a reality, two dimensional ones will come very soon, a nano machine is another story. It is the next frontier and one that requires advances in physics, chemistry, and engineering, but if those advances do come there's no question that super computers could use DNA as software the same way humans do, or even more efficiently. But even if those advances don't come, limited DNA computers exist today, which is proof that DNA material can be used for computational purposes. Just by the size factor alone, DNA computing can have an even bigger impact on society than the silicon chip did. There's an inverse relationship between size and rate of change when it comes to technology. And I think exponential rate of change is the central idea in this piece.

Edited by robot0

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A lot of research is being conducted on computing and programing on a molecular level. One dimensional nano devices are a reality, two dimensional ones will come very soon, a nano machine is another story.

 

Because I just read Scientific American and now consider myself an expert on the subject, I give you The Nanotube Radio.

 

The nanotube radio, its fabricators say, could be the basis for a range of revolutionary applications: hearing aids, cell phones and ­iPods small enough to fit completely within the ear canal. The nanoradio “would easily fit inside a living cell,” Zettl says. “One can envision interfaces to brain or muscle functions or radio-controlled devices moving through the bloodstream.

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When my car can drive me to work while I watch youtube on my iPhone... I'll be impressed.

 

Well, once you get the app for your iPhone and hook it to your car's USB port...

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